2017 will be dominated by two international processes: The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House and the triggering of Article 50.
Arguably it is the former that is more of an unknown. Trump has assembled an eclectic team around him but has also seemed to row back from some of the more outrageous things said in the campaign. Yet there have also been the late night tweets in which major foreign policy proclamations have been made and, just as worryingly, he’s proven himself to have quite a thin skin. It means that with the inauguration just over two weeks away, we still don’t know much of his policy platform nor his temperament.
A rapprochement with Russia, a trade war with China, an unravelling of free trade agreements elsewhere, intervention in Iraq and Syria, more hostile to Iran, reluctant over NATO and assertive in the South China Sea; all are possible and so the world with Trump at the helm might look very different indeed.
Article 50 meanwhile is a somewhat more straightforward process. The vote in Parliament before Christmas made clear that the will of the House of Commons is to enact the result of the referendum. We are expecting plans to be unveiled shortly and whether through the Royal Prerogative or through a vote, I’m certain we’ll trigger Article 50 by Easter. As I’ve said many times before, what will follow is some much needed pragmatism as both sides start to identify the many things that are in our mutual interest.
The markets will of course react, Government will be extraordinarily busy and the press will be in a frenzy. For those hoping 2017 would be the calm after the storm, it might be time to think again. The storm rages on.